What to expect in 2025
This year is going to be a crazy one for the newsletter space. The obvious culprit is AI — which is already changing how we write, grow and (starting with Apple Intelligence) even read newsletters.
But there are other, big changes too...
Social networks like X are shutting off traditional, free "subscriber growth" taps — by burying anything that looks like a link.
And "bot engagement" — machine-driven opens and clicks — is becoming ever more common.
We're already past the point where the numbers in your newsletter platform are less trustworthy than the height stats for men on dating apps. And it's only getting worse.
So with so many unknowns... what's next?
Here's where I think we're heading...
1 Ad networks (slowly) fail
Direct-sold newsletter sponsorships are going from strength to strength... but 2025 is shaping up to be an awful year for newsletter ad networks.
And no wonder: From a brand's perspective, newsletter ad networks have no chance of competing with the performance and scale they get from Meta, Google etc...
- no visibility into whether an ad was even seen by a human
- very limited audience data for targeting
- no ability to retarget
Throw in AI — the way Apple and GMail are already starting to replace "reading emails" with "reading an AI-generated summary" — and the future is bleak for in-email ads.
The early warning signs are already there: Big brands like Nike have tested out newsletter ad networks recently... but (so far) hardly any of them have repeated.
2 Newsletters become nudges
In 2025, I think we'll see popular newsletters move away from including their content inside the email, and switch to using the email as a "nudge" towards content hosted elsewhere (eg on their website).
Two big trends will drive this change IMO:
- Inbox tools are starting to "deprioritize" emails that readers don't regularly engage with (click, reply) and "hide" them in promotional tabs outside the main inbox
- The rollout of "auto-summarized" emails will result in heavily reduced views (and earnings) for in-email ads and sponsorships
As a result, the "smart" move will be for newsletters to move the content (and ads/sponsorships) to the browser. Where they can get the reader's full attention (and provide them with a richer content experience).
The email itself then serves as a "nudge" — a hook + CTA that (even when rewritten by the AI summarizer) drives the reader to click through from the email to the website.
3 Newsletters crack "day-0" monetization
Late last year, I did a deep-dive on what separates the best, most profitable newsletters from the rest.
The answer: Day-0 monetization.
There are great newsletters out there who earn $1-5 per new subscriber, within minutes of acquiring them. This allows them to grow huge, valuable audiences basically for free.
But — even though any newsletter could easily do this — 99.9% haven't. Yet.
In 2025, I predict this will change in a big way as more newsletter operators wake up to how they are currently limiting themselves.
4 Newsletters embrace "multiplayer mode"
Gone are the days of building a large email list organically from social media: Just check what happens if you include a link to your newsletter in a post on X.
Sure, paid acquisition still works great — Meta ads combined with day-0 monetization work better than ever. And there's a reason top newsletters are quietly spending $millions on SparkLoop.
But for fast, effective free growth, newsletters are rapidly waking up to what ~every other kind of content creator has known for years: We need to work together.
Concretely, that means more:
- newsletter engagement groups
- regular cross-promotions in every send
- strategic free recommendations via Upscribe
Like with day-0 monetization, multiplayer mode growth is easy. It just isn't popular yet because newsletter operators don't realize what they're missing out on.
But they will soon: I used multiplayer mode to grow this newsletter from 0-5k+ subs in 48 hours.
And plenty of smart newsletter operators are quietly using it to grow 3-10x faster for free.
5 A lot of "bad" newsletters quit
I don't believe we're in a newsletter bubble.
But I do think we've been living through a "newsletter bro" bubble for some time.
And it's about to pop.
For the past 2-3 years, VC-backed newsletter platforms have used the promise of "build the next Morning Brew" to convince thousands of mushroom-haircutted, basement-dwelling twenty-somethings to start newsletters.
A handful have been successful.
But 99.99% haven't. And they're slowly realising they've spent months building an audience that nobody wants, and a job for themselves writing a newsletter that isn't very good... which pays them way less than minimum wage.
6 Newsletters become springboards
On a more positive note, not all newsletters are desperately scrambling for a way to make a few extra cents from programmatic ads.
A clear trend in 2024 was great newsletters becoming aware of the opportunity to provide (and capture) value for their audience outside of the inbox.
From in-person events to community and even software products (enabled by generative AI), I'm super excited to see how more smart operators use their newsletters as springboards into deeper audience relationships and better ways of providing value.
Trendsetters worth watching closely here include:
- How Justin Moore is translating his Creator Wizard newsletter into a live gameshow/event and a book deal
- How Ryan Sneddon went from a local newsletter to luxury toilet rentals
- And pretty much everything the Every team is doing
7 Winning combo: Niche + Entertaining
This week I interviewed Darragh from the HalfBaked newsletter.
He writes a fast-growing newsletter in a super crowded space: "Business Ideas for people who want to start a business but don't have an idea yet" .
Yet — despite the competition — he managed to reach 30k+ subs in under a year. With excellent engagement.
How? By carving out a sub-niche with a specific (entertaining) angle...
While competing newsletters are dry and focussed on the "value", Half Baked is genuinely entertaining (including a "drunk business idea" and funny/witty writing style).
In 2025 as the "obvious" newsletters become increasingly saturated, I'm bullish on the newsletters that lean heavily into owning a specific sub-niche or angle.
Especially entertainment.
In a sea of inbox notifications full of emails that "provide value", it's an unfair advantage to be the only one that makes your reader smile.
